非农前的行情走势预测

今天休息观望

走势奇怪的一天。

行情大多数情况下的总体发展，都大致符合预期。个别货币对的价格运行略高于预期投影目标，欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎的走势，体现明显的后方推动力。这两个货币对的运行情况引起结构的失衡。美元兑瑞士法郎目前最可能处于日内修正模式—但也应该是看涨模式。

欧元兑美元仍然有潜在推动走势，但昨日的反向运行影响了信心。我可以接受这类情况出现，但当我观察其他货币对时发现，特别是英镑兑美元，该货币对走势倾向与其他两个欧系货币对的情况相反—然后继续我行我素，并保留在原来的运行轨道上。

当我观察欧元兑日元走势时，感觉昨日的下跌需要反转，然后进行深度修复，意味着后续将会出现更进一步的下跌…但美元兑日元的走势似乎提示价格会向更高点发展。这个冲突现象再次影响预期信心。

与此同时，澳元的下跌情况符合总体预期，并轻松到达我的预期目标。价格走势倾向简单的发展方式，需要出现较深度的修正并稍后反向运行到更低位。

总体来讲，货币对的走势预测中比较有信心的是英镑兑美元和澳元兑美元，美元兑日元和欧元兑日元略带疑虑，希望欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎能出现反转昨日行情的走势—但我没有太大信心，因此最好谨慎看待行情发展。

从积极的方面来看，艾略特和谐波浪医生已在整理美股的下跌…

祝周末愉快

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Take today off…

Yikes… What a strange day. For the most part, the general development was broadly in line with expectations, some pairs with slightly firmer projections than expected but it was EURUSD and USDCHF that clearly had some protrusion thrust up their backsides. It really is these two Continentals that have caused the structure to go out of whack. USDCHF is most likely now in a daily corrective pattern – but which should still be bullish. EURUSD still has a potential impulsive move in it but yesterday’s whiplash has reduced confidence. I could accept these but when I look at the other pairs, particularly GBPUSD, it tends to conflict with the other two – but then it did “it’s own thing” yesterday and could remain on its own track.

When I look at EURJPY, that I feel needs to reverse yesterday’s initial decline and then deep recovery, it suggests further losses… but USDJPY appears to suggest moving higher. The conflicts once again fail to generate a great deal of confidence.

Meanwhile, the Aussie saw the expected losses to the general range of targets, and happily to my pferred target. This seems relatively straightforward, required a deeper correction and later reversal back lower.

Overall, I feel the currency pairs in which I have greater confidence are GBPUSD and AUDUSD, have slight misgivings with the USDJPY / EURJPY mix and my “wish” is for EURUSD and USDCHF to reverse yesterday’s whiplash – although I don’t have enormous confidence and therefore it’ll be best to take care.

On the positive front, the decline in U.S. equities has been just what the Harmonic Elliott Wave  doctor ordered…

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey