延续震荡—行情走势预测

延续震荡

除了一两个小意外，昨天的走势发展情况基本符合大致预期。欧元全天波动不大，行情走势也并无惊喜之处。今天美元兑瑞士法郎或突破区间—可能是双向突破—但因靠近关键位置，基本上会限制今天的波动幅度—或者明天的波动幅度也会受限。

今天欧元兑美元的走势可能会触及预期回撤目标，但更多的可能是乏力运行在一个限定区间内。同时，英镑兑美元的走势也加入欧元货币战局中，创出新低的行情发展预期并没有太大惊喜，但今天该货币对的运行也应该维持在一个窄幅区间内。这一两天预期都是大致的横盘走势。

澳元已下破0.7096低点，奠定了明显的看空趋势。澳元兑美元走势突破关键低点后，会创出一个小新低，但走势呈现情况类似欧系货币，持续更长时间的横向修正走势。这些情况整体提示了价格的下行，但下降趋势看起来并不容易进一步发展，所以在这阶段，最好不要抱有过度看空的想法。

对于日系货币对…需要做出轻微调整，小时级别出现看涨背离，但4小时级别提示动能稳固掌控在空方。这些情况阻挡不了价格往更高点位发展的修正行情出现—事实上我认为目前走势或会结束于创出略低于前期低点的位置—但现价段来看下行空间有限。这也可以从欧元兑日元的走势上得到反映，曾提示128.67是目标低位，但随后行情出现简短修正，由此猜测或会引发价格延续运行到下一个投影目标，但现实价格却运行于另两个目标之间。因此，回归原来的设想，但希望价格走势能体现出欧系货币的震荡本质。

谨慎交易仍然是最好的方法。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Continued volatility

Barring one or two minor surprises yesterday provided the general outcome expected. In the Continental Europeans there was no set limits for the day and what developed was no surprise. Today USDCHF could make a break of the range – perhaps on both sides – but there are close barriers that should basically contain the development today – and maybe into tomorrow. I doubt EURUSD will reach the expected retracement target today but more likely languish within a subdued range. Meanwhile, adding GBPUSD into the European fray, it made new lows – which again was no great surprise – but it should remain within a tighter range today also. This general sideways move is expected for a day or two more.

The Aussie has broken below 0.7096. That has, at last, confirmed a direction and obviously bearish. Having made the break it can make a minor new low but should react similar to the Europeans in a more persistent sideways correction. While this does overall indicate losses, the downside doesn’t yet look vulnerable to an excessive decline so it’s best not to get too bearish at this stage.

So on to the JPY pairs… I’m sensing a slight adjustment that is required. We have an hourly bullish divergence but while 4-hour momentum remains firmly glued to the ground. It wouldn’t pvent a correction higher – and in fact I feel that is due from a minor new low – but at this stage the downside is limited for now it seems. That is being reflected in EURJPY also. The low at 128.67 was a target I had suggested but with such a brief correction I had thought we may see it extend to the next projection target but it stalled between two other targets. Therefore, I’m reverting back to the original but expect to see it reflect the swinging nature of the Europeans from this point…

Cautious trading still the best approach again.

Good trading

Ian Copsey