充满活力的年度开场---行情走势预测

我原以为今年的年度开场节奏会比较慢。但实际情况并非如此。昨天的市场运行状况已囊括了我对前半周的行情发展考虑，希望2016年会给我们带来更大的市场趋势。一定程度上，我是这么认为的，但感觉在市场总体的运行中，会出现一些显著的震荡走势。较早期的轻微修正会引发后期更深度的修正行情发展---并明显体现在同一阶段。市场延续去年的跌宕和大部分的横盘走势，特别是欧元兑美元货币对，走势发展将更符合预期。

今天会有什么期待发生？我认为不会重演昨天的走势，事实上，我觉得可能会是上述描述的一个迷你版本。看起来像双向交易状态，适用于3个欧系货币对里，也潜在适用于澳元走势里。后者澳元在一个大约2个月的宽幅区间里保持模棱两可的结构，如再扩大观察区域，可涵盖超过3个月范围的区间交易。

关于日元货币系列，有美元兑日元的预期下跌走势，但实际下跌的幅度已打破支撑，令结构看起来相当脆弱。不得不重新评估该货币对的下行情况。但这并不是很大的意外，因之前已有这种情况的预期，但并不完全落在这个节点上。破译结构的工作带点挑战性，因为要对结构的正确性提出疑问。所以，需要谨慎对待该货币对走势。其他可以提供澄清信息的，可能就是欧元兑日元货币对的走势情况了，该货币对似乎呈现更直接简单的结构--但仍然有颠覆走势的风险，或令其陷入区间整理。但通过一起比较欧元兑美元和欧元兑日元的行情，有助于得出美元兑日元的走势展望。

简而言之，继续跟进欧系货币对在关键支撑阻力位附近的价格走势情况，以便关联潜在反转点。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

A lively start to the year

Hmmm… I had thought we’d get a slower start to the year. Clearly not so. Yesterday’s moves encompassed the development that I had been considering for the first half of the week. Will 2016 bring us greater trends. To an extent, I certainly think so but I have a feeling it will still see some significant swings within the overall move. There are earlier shallow corrections that should provoke deeper ones later – and quite significant at one stage. Following last year’s ragged and mostly sideways development – particularly in EURUSD – this should show greater promise.

So what can we expect today? Well, I don’t think we’ll get a repeat of yesterday. In fact, I feel it could be a mini-version of the description above. It does look like seeing two-way trading. This seems to apply to the three Europeans and potentially the Aussie also. The latter remains in a rather ambiguous structure that has been holding within a broad range for around 2 months – and if you broaden the range it could encompass over 3 months of range trading.

The JPY pairs – well I had expected losses in USDJPY but the depth we have seen has broken to levels that appear to make it look quite vulnerable. This has forced me to have to reassess the downside. It’s not a huge surprise as I had expected this but perhaps not quite at this point. Deciphering the structure has been a tad challenging and does therefore raise question marks over the correctness of the structure. Therefore, do take care with this pair. If there can be anything to bring clarification it may be EURJPY that appears to have a more straightforward structure – but still with some risk of snafu’s given its propensity to get stuck in ranges. However, by taking EURUSD and EURJPY together I feel this will help with the outlook in USDJPY.

Keep track of the key levels in each European currency pairs in general to be able to correlate potential turning points.

Good trading

Ian Copsey