外汇交易评论：市场乏力--行情走势预测

市场乏力

本周前两天的走势令人失望。美元走强的预想并未能实现。需要调整的问题是，预期市场运行情况受到限制但实际却更进一步发展。市场交投不活跃，掷硬币出来的结果是另外一个方向。但结构未被破坏，只要观点正确，我仍偏向维持之前的看法。

一个有趣的现象就是—欧元兑美元与英镑兑美元出现负相关走势，如之前预期，后者扩大了跌幅。目前英镑兑美元或会出现更大修正幅度的风险，随着美元后续的上涨，问题是这种负相关走势是否会延续。另外一个疑惑是，在一年的这个时候，低迷的市场状况会否真是一个提示指标。在欧元兑美元的价格运行通道，美元兑日元的下行楔形和欧元兑日元的上升楔形走势当中，可以看到些信号。所有的破位都倾向提示美元的上涨。

基于此假设，今年所剩下的时间基本是美元的牛市。最关键的货币对美元兑瑞士法郎，下跌走势未能下破0.9785低位甚至没有进一步靠近这个点位，如预期失效，这个现象或会带来另一个风险。从相关市场的情况来看，澳元兑美元被进一步推高的走势也令人有点不解。综合各方面，这是我比较关注的预期，对于澳元的上涨，我正努力寻找平衡点

这是我今年最后一个预期展望，虽然有些冲突的现象出现，但如果美元上涨的预期失效的话，那么盘面也会出现对应清晰的破位情况，基于此，行情运行仍然处于看涨范围内，但需要在今天和今年年底的时间里得到更有力的信号，以获得更多的信心。

祝大家假期愉快，投资愉快，更重要的是有一个和平的2016新年

交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Market fatigue

The first two days of this week have been disappointing. I have been looking for Dollar strength but which has failed to materialize. The issue is that we are in a correction – one that I had expected to be limited but has taken the deeper path. With the market not really interested in actually trading, the toss of the coin has gone the wrong way. However, the structure hasn’t broken down but, as long as my view is right, the outcome I have been promoting remains my pference.

There was one interesting development – the negative correlation between the Continental Europeans and GBPUSD, the latter extending losses as I had expected. The risk now is for a correction higher in GBPUSD and the question whether the negative correlation will continue but with the Continentals finally seeing Dollar gains. The additional puzzle is that with a lackluster market momentum is not really a great indicator at this time of the year. We have a channel in EURUSD and a descending wedge in USDJPY and ascending wedge in EURJPY that could provide some signals. Breaks of all would tend to suggest Dollar gains.

So on this assumption, the rest of the year should mostly be a Dollar bullish one. The most critical currency pair I see is in USDCHF that cannot really break below the 0.9785 low and really shouldn’t even get close and that will be the alternative risk if my outlook fails completely. That AUDUSD has been pushing higher is a little disconcerting in terms of a correlated market also. In many ways, it is my favored outlook, for a bullish Aussie, but I’ve been trying to find the balance here.

Thus, as my last outlook for this year, there are some conflicts but there are some clear break levels if my Dollar bullish outlook fails. At this point it’s still in the bullish zone but we do need some firmer strength over today and into the end of the year to generate more confidence.

May I wish you all a wonderful holiday season and a profitable – but more importantly – peaceful 2016.

Good trading

Ian Copsey