外汇交易评论：圣诞前夕行情走势预测

外汇交易评论：圣诞前夕行情走势预测

圣诞前夕的蜗牛走势

本周（半周交易时间）是以蜗牛轨迹开始的缓慢走势，这种状态也可以称为市场疲弱。或许并不会有惊喜出现，本年度的这一周时间里，可能整个市场都已经不做交易了。而且，这是个传递包裹的游戏。没有人愿意在这个时候持有头寸。话虽如此，但市场仍然存在持续整理的风险，价格运行已经到了预期修正的极限，并没有出现复杂修正行情的风险。因此，留意接下来两天内强势美元的恢复。复杂走势程度暂时未知。

美元进一步走强的预期依据来自欧元和美元兑日元货币对的运行情况里—澳元兑美元也有潜在信号。欧元或会先于美元兑日元运行，后者有出现较长时间横向整理的潜在风险。这并不是固定不变的，但从美元兑日元116.16低位结构来看，似乎美元兑日元正准备以欧元兑美元为依据走出更长时期的横向整理行情。这是一个观察点，但肯定是一个完全可能发展的前景。

澳元仍处于一个微妙的位置，需要些催化剂启动运行。盘面倾向于提示混乱疲弱走势的一天。对待价格运行仍需谨慎，注意多空分水岭位置，将会触发进一步行情走势发展，但过往一个月的横向整理已被破坏，无论多空两方，几乎都没有出现一个令人信服的结构。需要更强有力的突破，以带动更多的方向性走势。

如往常一样，每年的这个时候，应该放松一点，但我觉得今天应该能看到美元的强势。

交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Pre-Xmas escargot

The (half) week began with a naked snail trail – otherwise known as a ‘slug’-gish market. Perhaps it should have been no surprise given this is probably the one week of the year that the entire market has given up trading. More, it’s a game of pass the parcel. No one wants to hold a position. Having said that, while there is a risk of continued consolidation we have reached the expected limits of this correction and I can’t see a uniform risk of a complex correction. Therefore, watch out for the risk of a resurgent Dollar over the next two days. How complicated that may be is unknown.

The expectation of further strength in the Dollar appears uniform across both Europeans and USDJPY – potentially AUDUSD also. I sense that the Europeans could outstrip USDJPY in terms of movement, the latter at risk of seeing a potentially lengthy sideways consolidation. This isn’t set in stone, but looking at the structure from the 116.16 low in USDJPY, I cannot help but feel that it’s going to “do” a EURUSD in terms of a longer sideways correction. It’s just an observation at this point but it’s certainly an outlook I feel is quite possible.

The Aussie is still in a delicate position but needs a catalyst. This tends to suggest an upside-down slug-gish day. It will still be prudent to note the levels on both sides of the market that will trigger a more directional move but the general sideways move over the past month has been ragged and, to be honest, hardly provided a convincing structure on either side of the market. We need a stronger break to generate a more directional move…

As normal, at this time of year, take it easy but I feel we should see Dollar strength today.

Good trading

Ian Copsey