外汇交易评论：节前行情走势预测

基本上本周只有3天的交易日。显然，本周五几乎所有市场都休市。

周四一般只有0.5天，意味着只有前3天可以做交易，总的来讲，当市场流动性处于全年最低谷时，交易的兴趣氛围会减弱很多。由于较少流动性，有时也会出现相对急速的价格运行走势，因此应该留心一些合理方向浪的潜在发展影响。目前所在的结构位置，一旦有温和的趋势发展则需要注意出现复杂修正行情的风险，而引发缓慢的横盘整理，及不规则的锯齿浪走势。

上周五市场的整固或修正行情发展状况，似乎限制了本周初的后续发展，所以在美元进一步下行回调的等待中，要避免入市受困。周二又或者是周三，市场运行应该是顺应趋势浪方向…随后而来的就是市场停滞运行的风险。

美元兑日元倾向于延续目前走势，该货币对目前或至少下周之前的行情发展情况，并不像今年以来的走势。上周五的快速下行有点令人意外，但就后市发展趋势来讲，我更倾向于关注或以横向盘整方式开始的价格走势恢复。同样的关注也存在于欧元兑日元的走势中，欧元兑日元有一定程度的下跌，或许今天会再进一步下行，但修正的方式有限。随后，重要的是关注欧元兑美元的走势会怎样发展。结构已形成，只需要确定是否破位从而引起价格的强势运行。

祝交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Push forward this week

We basically have a three-day week this week. Obviously, Friday is an almost universal break, Thursday is generally a half-day and that just leaves the first three days for trading but mostly there is a total lack of interest in trading when liquidity is at its lowest ebb in the year. Of course, there will be movement and can be relatively sharp at times, due to the thin liquidity, and therefore we must be aware of the potential for some reasonable directional waves. Having said that, we are in a section of the structure where, once a modest trend has developed that the risk will be for a correction that can be complex and therefore trigger a sideways consolidation in slow, ratcheting and erratic development.

As the week begins we seem to have limited follow-through from Friday’s consolidation/corrections so don’t get caught waiting for excessive losses in the Dollar. This should be followed by a directional wave into Tuesday and probably Wednesday… and then comes the risk of stagnation.

Just looking at USDJPY that can tend to make a unilateral decision to make extended moves, frankly it doesn’t look like it this year, or at least before next week. Its sharp drop on Friday was a bit of a surprise but in terms of pference of outlook, I tend to look for a recovery but may well begin to move sideways. This tends to work with EURJPY that saw some decent losses also, and could see further losses today – but probably only in a limited manner before correcting. Then it’s a matter of how EURUSD will develop. The structure is there. We just need to make sure of any breaks that may force a stronger move…

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey