外汇交易评论：反转确认--行情走势预测

反转确认

除了少许轻微破位走势之外，价格的总体运行并没有打破关键的支撑或阻力位，似乎这就是美元的低点了。还有其他几个补充确认的信息，如欧元兑美元在4小时周期里，走出了一个有效的棒线反转形态，美元兑瑞士法郎的头肩底形态以及持续走低的英镑兑美元。另外，在3个欧系货币对以及美元兑日元的走势中，4小时的价格均衡云图里出现反转信号，虽然后者美元兑日元暂时未完全落实反转走势。总体来讲，除了留意亚盘时段修正行情的风险外，我们更应该关注随后欧盘和美盘时段的走势情况。

我目前面临的问题是，波浪的发展情况逐渐被忽视，忽略价格交替周期运行的这种趋势越来越明显，这种情况显得有点疯狂。这种状况必然会在锁定精准目标方面，甚至连确定支撑阻力线的信心和能力方面带来困难。这也表明了市场参与者实际所做的交易并不像是在一个正常流动的市场环境下进行的，并且更多的只是一种传递自己不想要的价格点位的行为反应。因此，个人最好的建议就是逢低买入美元，但不要在这个价格点位上持仓。

美元兑日元最近的走势有点曲折，该货币对并没有下行到更低的预期目标，如能看到价格运行突破122.22上方，我会对目标结果更有信心，到那时我需要关注另外一个看跌结构的发展。

距离圣诞节只有一周的时间了，在没有明确信号出现之前，最好不要冒险进场了。

交易顺利！

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Reversal confirmed

Barring a few minor breaches – but which did not trigger breaks of key support/resistance levels – we appear to have seen the Dollar lows. There were several added confirmations also. EURUSD generated an effective 4-hour Key Bar Reversal, an Inverse Head & Shoulders in USDCHF and follow-through lower in GBPUSD. In addition, the Dollar has reversed through the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds in all three Europeans and also USDJPY – although the latter hasn’t quite confirmed a reversal… Overall, while the early risk is for the Asian correction, we should see follow-through over the European and North American trading sessions.

The problem I now face is the declining liquidity that is clearly being seen in the wave development. There is a growing tendency to skip alternation with prices looking a bit scatty and wild. It certainly does not make it easy to be certain of pcise targets nor consequently the ability to be confident of even support & resistance levels. It’s demonstrating that market participants are not really trading as in normal liquidity conditions and more just reacting to passing on positions they just do not want. Thus, the best advice I can give is to buy Dollars on dips but don’t hang on to the position for any length of time.

USDJPY has been rather difficult recently. It didn’t move to the lower projection targets that may imply continued gains. I’d still like to see a break above 122.22 to feel more confident of that outcome. Until then there does remain an alternative bearish structure that I want to keep my eye on.

With just one week of trading before Xmas, best take no risks unless there is a clear signal.

Good trading

Ian Copsey