外汇交易评论：近期行情走势预测

外汇交易评论：近期行情走势预测

季节性平淡走势

处于临界点的行情走势显得有点崎岖。我通常在波浪(iii)预测目标，在小级别时间周期里 (从5分钟到1小时级别)，偏差控制在离目标1-2个点以内，在更大的时间周期里，我允许稍微大一点的偏差。在极具流动性的市场里，我需要在超过9个月的时间周期里预测目标，只允许距离确切目标0.03%的偏差。现在，即使在5分钟的时间图表里，我也能看到持续增加偏离的趋势。这种现象通常预示着较高的风险，但也是我建议及时获利平仓并心怀感激的原因。

从欧元兑美元和美元兑瑞士法郎的走势当中，可以看到美元运行的新低，只能算是勉强的新低，但并不是我所期待的新低。英镑兑美元的下跌走势较为顺利，虽然略高于预期1.5110下方的目标。这虽不是绝对的反转依据，但提示美元恢复涨势的风险越来越大。动能方面，结合4小时周期和1小时周期的价格均衡云图，提示正在酝酿反转条件，我们只需要等待发展结果。

我对澳元兑美元的整固走势抱谨慎态度，我不得不投入分析潜在发展前景的工作中并观察行情运行是怎样符合全局走势，虽不是理想状态，但目前为止，有迹象表明似乎会出现更低点。

美元兑日元价格运行几乎到达了目标位，现在价格稳定在一个区间，进一步到达昨日在视频里提及的目标。价格仍然有些变动，我们必须明白信号只会指向价格运行的1个方向，无论上升还是下跌。值得关注的是，欧元兑日元的价格运行到了132.43，仅距离我的理想支撑位上方2个点的位置。现在需要观察一下接下来的温和上涨走势，任何跌破昨日低点的走势或提示潜在跌势的开始。

交易顺利！

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Seasonal dull…

Gee, the development is getting a bit rough at the edges. I normally expect (impulsive) projection targets in Wave (iii) to be within 1 or 2 points from target in the lower degrees (5-min through hourly.) In the higher degrees I allow for a slightly stronger deviation. In really liquid markets I have identified projections over 9 months and only be 0.03% deviation to the pcise target. Right now, I’m seeing an increasing tendency for a stronger deviation even in the 5-minute charts. This does generate slightly higher risk but this is why I’ve been suggesting taking profits and saying “thank you.”

In EURUSD and USDCHF we have seen new Dollar lows – only marginally – but wasn’t what I was looking for. However, the drop in GBPUSD was better although slightly firmer than expected and below 1.5110. While not an absolute in terms of a reversal, it does provide a growing risk of the resumption of Dollar gains. Momentum conditions, combined with the 4-hour and hourly Price Equilibrium Clouds, are providing the right conditions for a reversal. We just now need to see this outcome develop.

I remain wary of AUDUSD and moving towards continued consolidation. I am being forced to work with potential scenarios and seeing how the development fits into the larger picture. It’s not the ideal but, so far, the evidence does seem to point lower for now.

USDJPY almost reached targets and is now settling in a range that can still reach the target mentioned in yesterday’s video outlook. It’s still a bit in flux and we’re going to have to understand the lines that will point price in one direction – whether up or down. It is notable that EURJPY reached 132.43 – just 2 points above my ideal support. We now have to see further modest gains else, any break below yesterday’s low could begin to have greater bearish potential.

Good trading

Ian Copsey