外汇交易评论：圣诞节前准备--行情走势预测

外汇交易评论：圣诞节前准备--行情走势预测

圣诞节前准备

距离平安夜还有10天的时间，市场运行会越来越缓慢，执行一个交易订单会让行情走得更平坦。

平淡的行情走势不仅是因为临近圣诞节的原因，这种行情走势甚至会持续到新年，年末最后的4天或许有些机会可以看到趋势，我留意到一些迹象，但目前行情走势平缓的状况，令我怀疑从今天开始一直到新年期间，能否看到相应的温和发展，如果是的话，那么这些应该是明年1月份的头两周里建立趋势的基础构建元素。这种发展前景是很有可能的，也许我们会见到复杂的修正行情(单调或者更单调)，由此延长了相关结构的形成时期。

本周初，我们需要明确美元是否结束回调。这似乎限制了1个或2个货币对与美元新低之间的空间—特别是英镑兑美元走势，显示英镑略强。所以需要观察美元今天，或者明天所创的高位信号，下阶段就是从这点推测基础浪的发展…本阶段我们必须控制仓位大小并注意及时获利了结。

如果说有哪个货币对看起来有更多的趋势发展空间的话，那么就要数美元兑日元了，该货币对不是最简单的走势发展，但具有潜在的看涨背离虽然还不太明显。因此，如果价格有持续下行，潜在背离或会演变成更直接的下行，欧元兑日元的走势情况确实令人觉得困惑，欧元兑日元的走低或仅仅是修正行情，关注我上周提示的支撑位。如支撑位被打破，进一步下跌的局面将会被打开。

谨慎交易,谨慎前进,从今天开始。

投资愉快！

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Monday, December 14, 2015

Getting ready for Rudolph

Ten days to Christmas Eve, the market’s getting fat, please put an order to go very flat…

This probably sums up not only the approach to Christmas and potentially through to the New Year. There are occasions that the last four days of the year could see a trend, I’ve noted that on quite few occasions, but given the flat year it does make me wonder whether the development from today through to the New Year could see some relatively tame development. If it does, then it should be more of a base building element to set the trend off soon into the first two weeks of January. With such an outlook it’s quite possible, perhaps probable, that we could see complex corrections (flats or expanded flats) that would extend the period of the corrective structures.

As this week begins we need to establish the end of the Dollar weakness. There appears to be limited wiggle room in one or two currency pairs for new Dollar lows – in particular GBPUSD that suggests some gains for the Pound. So we should be observing for signs of a reversal higher in the Dollar over today – maybe into tomorrow – and from that point onwards the development of the foundation waves will be the next stages… That’s going to force us to maintain limited position sizes but also taking profits relatively promptly.

If there is any possible currency pair that appears to have more room for a trend, then it’s USDJPY. It hasn’t been the most straightforward development – and there are potential bullish divergences but ones that are not particularly strong. Thus, if there are any continued losses it would suggest that those potential divergences will turn into a more direct decline… The one issue that does confuse, is the weakness in EURJPY that may only be in a correction and therefore keep track of the support levels I have suggested over the past week. If they break then the floor could open up.

Cautious trading is the prudent way forward from today.

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey