外汇交易评论：欧元兑日元走势预测

外汇交易评论：欧元兑日元走势预测

BIAS：维持等待信号状态，虽然结构底部已出现看涨迹象

阻力:          133.50-60           134.11-21              134.58                  134.75-80

支撑:          133.10                132.70-76              132.10-40             131.60-70

主要分析: 欧元兑日元，昨日的下跌走势在132.70-75略高位置得到支撑，这或是预期的最终低点，但请注意，进一步的回撤区域在132.10-40。

美元兑日元的走势，高点被抬高，提示上升趋势倾向。欧元兑日元冲破133.50-60阻力后，至少会继续上行至134.11-21区间，并进一步突破前高134.58。

获利目标在132.65-70或136.00-11区间，注意严防风险。

反向分析：如价格未能突破133.50-60和134.11-21区间，则价格有再次下跌至132.76下方及132.10-40区间的风险。如符合预期应持仓等待盈利。

中线分析：

12月4日：昨天的行情走势更增添复杂，有预期一个位于B浪的76.4%回撤位置的低点，但未知的是美元兑日元是否有足够动能下跌至116.16下方…甚至出现几近完全回撤的情况，需要更多信息（特别是来自美元兑日元方面的信息）来研判。

交易顺利。

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

安定

很高兴见到昨天更加平静的走势行情。尽管自上周后期出现了超出预期的价格走势，但其实有一个货币对的运行情况早前就有提示信号，这个货币对就是美元兑瑞士法郎，日内回撤走势中有一段应该能形成支撑的窄幅运行区间。

这些回撤走势是行情停滞运行的范围，需要我们提高警觉。

不太明朗的是欧元兑美元，但昨天价格的走低减少了不确定性，英镑兑美元看起来似乎没完成反弹。综合起来看，最终修正行情的合并结果，希望很快会协助我们得出美元下跌的结论。继上周美元走低的情况出现后，我设想过一个持续更长时期的复杂修正走势，这与美元直接恢复简单涨势的想法有争议。

随着时间的推移观点会得到证实，但目前我们需要解决未来几天将出现的，行情最后阶段的走势问题。请注意，下周的市场流动性会更显著减少，倾向于回复令人失意的窄幅整理行情。

今天，美元的涨势存在风险，可能维持一个相对窄幅震荡的走势。

尤其是英镑兑美元出现整固行情，美元兑瑞士法郎和欧元兑美元的走势也限制了美元的涨势， 看起来盘面会平静地运行直至周末。

另一方面，美元兑日元走势显示似乎结构被破败，这或衍生出更高风险和出现潜在的复杂修正行情，我甚至不能排除涨势的延续。欧元兑日元已经过较大幅度的修正，并显示在美元兑日元的带动下创新高的迹象，但目前还是按行情发展中看待。

几乎安静地结束这一周，关注日元货币，不过可能行情会进展缓慢。

周末愉快！

伊恩.科普赛

原文：

DAILY FORECAST FOR EURJPY

INTRADAY CHART

BIAS:  Remain waiting for stronger signals although the underlying structure does appear bullish

MAIN ANALYSIS:   Yesterday did see losses and stalled 1 point above the 132.70-75 support. This could be a final low for the expected rally. However, keep in mind the deeper 132.10-40 retracement area. However, that USDJPY has moved back higher tends to suggest the upside. A break above 133.50-60 should see follow-through to 134.11-21 at least and breach to the 134.58 high. Overall this would suggest gains to 135.65-70 and possibly around 136.00-11. However, take care...

COUNTER ANALYSIS:  Any failure to break above 133.50-60 and 134.11-21 would still risk a second dip to below 132.76 and to between 132.10-40. Ideally this should hold for gains to resume.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:

4th December:  Yesterday's developments have made this even more tricky. Yes, we did have a low at the 76.4% retracement in Wave ^B but the unknown quantity is USDJPY and whether it can rustle up the confidence to see losses to below 116.16… That outcome could even allow a flat correction... Thus, we need a little more information (particularly from USDJPY) to judge the outcome.

Good trading

Ian Copsey

Settling down

It was good to see quieter day yesterday. Despite the unexpected moves since the end of last week, there has been one pair that has provided some guidance – that being USDCHF – being a daily retracement that has quite a tight area that should provide support. Having said that, these retracements do have a range in which they can stall so we do still need to be on our guard.

Less clear is EURUSD but yesterday’s drift lower reduces the options and GBPUSD that doesn’t look as if it has completed the rally. This combination of finalising the completion of the correction should soon bring a confluence of options that will – hopefully – help us to recognise the conclusion of these Dollar losses. While, following last week’s whip lower in the Dollar, I had considered a longer lasting complex correction, there is an argument for a direct resumption of Dollar gains. We’ll have to confirm this when the time comes, but for now we have work to resolve these final legs that should occur over the next few days. Also keep in mind that by next week the liquidity will be declining more sharply and that tends to revert to tight ranges and frustration.

For today, the risk appears to be Dollar bullish but may well keep to a relatively tight range. In particular GBPUSD suggests consolidation and USDCHF and EURUSD also suggest limited Dollar gains. Therefore, it does look like a quiet run into the weekend.

On the other hand, USDJPY seems to suggest that it’s losing control of a structure and this appears to generate a higher level of risk and potential for a complex correction. I can’t even rule out a resumption of gains. That EURJPY has seen a deeper correction and does seem to suggest a new high may well be driven by USDJPY but we’ll have to judge this as it develops…

Mostly a quiet end to the week, best look for the JPY currencies but even then could be quite slow.

Have a great weekend

Ian Copsey