外汇交易评论：出人意料的预期—行情走势预测

外汇交易评论：出人意料的预期—行情走势预测

个人并没料想到这个出乎意料的预期，曾有考虑过美元潜在的后续低点，但觉得意外的并不止是意外的程度，还有在预期之外出现的形态结构。目前行情的发展似乎令我们对未来一个月将出现复杂修正行情的设想不能成立，同时也增加了另一个问题，修正行情是否从上周美元触及高点时已经结束，又或者我们还会看到更高的高点。

英镑兑美元效仿欧元兑美元的走势令人意外，似乎提示行情在下跌前会回调更高，虽然目前空间不大。

这个同样适用于欧元，出于基础浪的发展需要，形成初期或会比较难看到美元显著的涨势。

这个过程至少持续1周，或接近圣诞节前。

另一个令人困惑的走势是澳元兑美元，目前0.7384的高点仅仅比前期高点高3个点，暂时还不能随意定义其形态，或找出合适的结构表明其形成看涨浪形，需要更多建设性的行情发展情况来明确状态。

最后，美元兑日元终于跌破了低点122.25，出现了延迟了48周的周期低点。

行情应该会进一步发展，这是在过去一个月里所见到的相对简单的行情走势。

目前还没有确定其形态结构，因此最好保持谨慎直到行情明朗。

应该过不了多久，欧元兑日元的行情也会出现走低。

结构是非常脆弱的，基于这点考虑，绝对需要小心谨慎。

交易顺利！

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Unexpected expectations

What a mess… I have to admit that I hadn’t expected the unexpected expectations … or something like that… I had considered the potential follow-through lower in the Dollar (in the Continental Europeans) but not only was the extent a surprise but also a structure I had not expected. This development appears to have dismissed the assumption that we could see complex corrections over the coming month or so. This also adds an additional problem of whether we have seen the completed correction from last week’s Dollar highs – or whether we could see higher.

That GBPUSD followed the lead of the Europeans was a total and utter surprise and appears to suggest a deeper correction higher – though not too much more now – before losses resume. This could also apply to the Europeans but with the need for foundation waves to develop we may well struggle to see significant Dollar gains initially while the base building can develop. This should last one week at a minimum, potentially closer to Xmas.

Another excruciating puzzle is AUDUSD. The 0.7384 high was just 3 points above the pvious high but, for the life of me, I cannot identify an impulsive structure – or even a logical structure to suggest a completed bullish wave. I’m going to need a constructive development to be able to work out what is happening here…

Finally, USDJPY has finally made up its mind, dropping below the 122.25 lows to suggest we are finally seeing a rather delayed 48-week cycle low. This should still have more to go but I’d sure appciate an easier development than we have seen over the past month… Having said that, there is no conformation as yet and therefore it will be best to remain cautious until confirmed. This should, before long, assist EURJPY lower also.

The structures are extremely fragile at this point. Care is most definitely required.

Good trading

Ian Copsey