外汇评论：圣诞节被取消

我今天早上睡过头了。我醒来的时候在凌晨4点，而不是3点，沉重缓慢地走上楼到我的书房,打开我的制图软件。是的，你可以想像出我完全和极度的震惊，我的下巴简直掉到地上下- 甚至楼下......它采取了，直到早晨8点之后才迎来一些初步的，试探性的前景。

这也已经影响到欧元兑日元。有趣的是我把目标定在129.60-65很长一段时间了- 但后来判断，它可以去到更低。然而从129.65区域，我不相信它可以得到的隐含目标。随着欧元兑美元的预期将保持在可能形成的三角形的一侧因此很难考虑美元兑日元是否能超越欧洲货币。这往往会带来进一步损失风险，对于美元兑日元和欧元兑日元。如果是这样，那么我们就可以看到48周的周期低点发生稍晚于预期...这是一个警惕 - 但尚未确定。

跟随持续看低的美元，在一般混乱的时候以及非农，我建议休息一个长周末。

周末愉快~

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Xmas is cancelled

I overslept this morning. I awoke at 4am instead of 3am, plodded up the stairs to my study and turned on my charting software. Yes, you can imagine the total and utter shock, my chin hitting the floor – of downstairs… It has taken until after 8am to come to some initial, tentative outlooks.

The most logical amongst several alternatives is broad consolidation. Hence, the trend I had oh, so hoped for, has turned into a correction and from the prior related corrections that suggests potential for complex corrections – flat/expanded flat or triangle with the latter the most likely option. This is not good news. Rather like the 3-month period in EURUSD between May and August, the risk should be somewhat similar to what I suspect will develop over the coming month.

Having said that, a wholesale review of six currency pairs over 4-hours always has a certain level of risk in terms of how accurate the analysis and structure can be achieved. This will take a day or three to begin to get a stronger grasp of whether my renewed thoughts/expectations are valid. What does seem encouraging is that the Europeans tend to reflect the same outlook, the Aussie suggesting gains and USDJPY… well that one is yet to be clarified…

This has impacted on EURJPY also. Interestingly I did have a target of 129.60-65 for a long time – but then judges that it could get lower. However, from the 129.65 area I’m not convinced that it can get to the implied target. With EURUSD expected to remain side lined in a possible triangle it is difficult to consider USDJPY will outperform the Europeans. That tends to risk further losses in both USDJPY and EURJPY. If so, then we could see the 48-week cycle low a little later than expected… That’s one to watch out for – but not yet a certainty.

Following the whip lower in the Dollar, the general confusion and the NFP, I’d suggest taking a long weekend.

Have a great weekend