外汇评论：龟和龟的故事

是的，整年似乎都在看到“野兔”的灭绝。其实有时候我觉得就算是乌龟也已经进入冬眠状态...不过，昨日的发展相当接近预期，这预示着我所说的总体结构。我不知道今天会不会看到野兔就从洞里雨后春笋般冒出来。事实上，它看起来是温和修正的可能性更大。这应该意味着 - 在某个时候 - 我们将必须细心识别修正的结果。如果有其他的替代方案，我们只可能是看到一些横盘整理。我对今天的走势表示怀疑，但周四的感恩节在美国时段有较大机会看到平淡横盘整理的一天。

总之，我看不出今天特别强的走势，因为欧元兑日元几乎已经完成了它的衰落，而应该可以看到收益的发展- 并且应该更受美元兑日元的推动。因此，这种交叉确实显示出一个有双向可能的日子。

交易顺利

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

The tale of the tortoise and the tortoise

Yes, the entire year appear to have seen hares go extinct. In fact, sometimes I’ve felt that the tortoise has gone into hibernation too… However, yesterday developed ptty close to expectations and this bodes well for my general structures. I’m not sure today will see any hares start popping up from holes. In fact, it does look as if modest corrections are more likely. This should mean that – at some point – we will have to be observant to identify the correction endings. If there is any other alternative then we may just see some sideways consolidation. I doubt it for today, but Thursday’s Thanksgiving in the States has the greater chance of seeing a dull sideways day.

The Europeans are working ptty much to expectations, so I’ll not make any additional mention of these chaps. However, the Aussie is struggling a bit. Yesterday’s low was a tad deep and this needs to be observed carefully. I’d much pfer another rally but even if it does, I can’t see a strong follow-through.

The JPY pairs had different outcomes in terms of constructive movement. USDJPY feinted a rally but then gave up to allow a marginally new corrective low. This low should not break else the downside could look more at risk. Until then the underlying picture should be bullish. Having said that, as I have mentioned for quite some months, there is a key 48-week cycle low looming over the next 2-3 weeks…

However, I can’t see particularly strong movement today because EURJPY has almost completed its decline and that should see gains develop – and should be driven more by USDJPY. Therefore, the cross does suggest a two-way day.

Good trading

Ian Copsey