外汇评论：仍需衡量性交易

市场仍持谨慎态度。这似乎相当早即已提出的是，在流动性上我们正在接近季节性衰退，但考虑到今年大多数时间市场已经被压迫得十分缓慢，纠正价格的发展，市场将很可能不会改变谨慎的风气以及增加风险。同样，如果有显著的催化性发展，缺乏流动性市场将很可能看到一些显著波动。

因此，最有可能的，我们将不会看到太多的动向，最好做法是较短期的交易，直到下一段趋势的恢复。

交易顺利

伊恩.科普赛

英伦金融研究部高级顾问

国际贵金属外汇波浪权威

原文：

Still measured trading

The market remains cautious. It may seem rather early to mention that we are approaching the seasonal decline in liquidity but given the majority of this year has been overwhelmed by slow, corrective price development, the market will likely not be in a mood to throw caution to the wind and ratchet up risk. Equally, if any significant catalyst develops, the lack of liquidity could well see some sharp moves.

Having mentioned the above, frankly I don’t see any risk of a sharp move today. We are seeing Dollar gains and that should extend a more today but we are approaching levels where we shall need a pullback. Most likely, following the rough targets I have set, we’ll have to absorb a correction. However, there is a decent way to go for today. It won’t generate a huge profit but the opportunity to pick up some points on the bullish side is there.

This applies to the Europeans in general although GBPUSD is in a different section of the development. The Pound broke below a key level and that should imply losses are on the way – but – it now has to form the foundation waves and that will likely restrict the downside for now – thus matching both EURUSD and USDCHF.

After puzzling over the Aussie for a couple of days, I think I have resolved the current decline but this is rather similar to GBPUSD in that it also needs to form some lower degree foundation waves for the next decline. As you can judge, this follow-through and correction is applicable to all these pairs.

USDJPY finally managed to return to the upside and there should be more to go – but once again, we are at a stage for a correction before it can make further gains. This should allow EURJPY to lose out overall, but guess what? Yes, it’s forming foundation waves…

So, most likely we’ll not see too much activity and best to play the shorter term trades until the next segment of the trend resumes.

Good trading

Ian Copsey